Denialists are perhaps the toughest type of charlatans to deal with because so many of them indulge in the fantasy that they are actually embracing the highest standards of scientific rigor, even while they repudiate scientific standards of evidence. On topics like anthropogenic climate change, whether HIV causes AIDS, or whether vaccines cause autism, most denialists really don’t have any other science to offer; they just don’t like the science we’ve got. They will believe what they want to believe and wait for the evidence to catch up to them. Like their brethren “Birthers” (who do not accept Barack Obama’s birth certificate) or “Truthers” (who think that George W. Bush was a co-conspirator on 9/11), they will look for any excuse to show that their ill-warranted beliefs actually fit the facts better than the more obvious (and likely) rational consensus. While they may not actually care about empirical evidence in a conventional sense (in that no evidence could convince them to give up their beliefs), they nonetheless seem eager to use any existing evidence – no matter how flimsy – to back up their preferred belief. But this is all based on a radical misunderstanding or misuse of the role of warrant in scientific belief. As we know, scientific belief does not require proof or certainty, but it had better be able to survive a challenge from refuting evidence and the critical scrutiny of one’s peers. But that is just the problem. Denialist hypotheses seem based on intuition, not fact. If a belief is not based on empirical evidence, how can we convince someone to modify it based on empirical evidence? It is almost as if denialists are making faith-based assertions.
Unsurprisingly, most denialists do not see themselves as denialists and bristle at the name; they prefer to call themselves “skeptics” and see themselves as upholding the highest standards of science, which they feel have been compromised by those who are ready too soon to reach a scientific conclusion before all of the evidence is in. Climate change is not “settled science,” they will tell you. Liberal climate scientists around the world are hyping the data and refusing to consider alternative hypotheses, because they want to create more work for themselves or get more grant money. Denialists customarily claim that the best available evidence is fraudulent or has been tainted by those who are trying to cover something up. This is what makes it so frustrating to deal with denialists. They do not see themselves as ideologues, but as doubters who will not be bamboozled by the poor scientific reasoning of others, when in fact they are the ones who are succumbing to highly improbable conspiracy theories about why the available evidence is insufficient and their own beliefs are warranted despite lack of empirical support. This is why they feel justified in their adamant refusal to change their beliefs. After all, isn’t that what good skeptics are supposed to do? Actually, no.
Skepticism plays an important role in science. When one hears the word “skepticism” one might immediately think of the philosopher’s claim that one cannot know anything: that knowledge requires certainty and that, where certainty is lacking, all belief should be withheld. Call this philosophical skepticism. When one is concerned with nonempirical beliefs – such as in Descartes’s Meditations, where he is concerned with both sensory and rational belief – we could have a nice discussion over whether fallibalism is an appropriate epistemological response to the wider quest for certainty. But, as far as science is concerned, we need not take it this far, for here we are concerned with the value of doubt in obtaining warrant for empirical beliefs.
Are scientists skeptics? I believe that most are, not in the sense that they believe knowledge to be impossible, but in that they must rely on doubt as a crucible to test their own beliefs before they have even been compared to the data. Call this scientific skepticism. The ability to critique one’s own work, so that it can be fixed in advance of showing it to anyone else, is an important tool of science. As we have seen, when a scientist offers a theory to the world one thing is certain: it will not be treated gently. Scientists are not usually out to gather only the data that support their theory, because no one else will do that. As Popper stated, the best way to learn whether a theory is any good is to subject it to as much critical scrutiny as possible to see if it fails.
There is a deeply felt sense of skepticism in scientific work. What is distinctive about scientists, however, is that unlike philosophers, they are not limited to reason; they are able to test their theories against empirical evidence. Scientists embrace skepticism both by withholding belief in a theory until it has been tested and also by trying to anticipate anything that might be wrong in their methodology. As we have seen, doubt alone is not enough when engaging in empirical inquiry; one must be open to new ideas as well. But doubt is a start. By doubting, one is ensuring that any new ideas are first run through out critical faculties.
What of scientists whose skepticism leads them to reject a widely supported theory – perhaps because of an alternative hypothesis that they think (or hope) might replace it – but with no empirical evidence to back up the idea that the current theory is false or that their own is true? In an important sense, they cease to be scientists. We cannot assess the truth or likelihood of a scientific theory based solely on whether it “seems” right or fits with our ideological preconceptions or intuitions. Wishing that something is true is not acceptable in science. Our theory must be put to the test.
And this is why I believe that denialists are not entitled to call themselves skeptics in any rightful sense of the word. Philosophical skepticism is when we doubt everything – whether it comes from faith, reason, sensory evidence, or intuition – because we cannot be certain that it is true. Scientific skepticism is when we withhold belief on empirical matters because the evidence does not yet allow us to meet the customarily high standards of justification in science. By contrast, denialism is when we refuse to believe something – even in the face of what most others would take to be compelling evidence – because we do not want it to be true. Denialists may use doubt, but only selectively. Denialists know quite well what they hope to be true, and may even shop for reasons to believe it. When one is in the throes of denial, it may feel a lot like skepticism. One may wonder how others can be so gullible in believing that something like climate change is “true” before all of the data are in. But it should be a warning sign when one feels so self-righteous about a particular belief that it means more than maintaining the consistent standards of evidence that are the hallmark of science.
As Daniel Kahneman so eloquently demonstrates in his book Thinking Fast and Slow, the human mind is wired with all sorts of cognitive biases that can help us to rationalize our preferred beliefs. Are these unconscious biases perhaps the basis for denialism even in the face of overwhelming evidence? There is good empirical support to back this up. Furthermore, it cannot be overlooked that the phenomenon of “news silos” that we spoke of earlier may exacerbate the problem by giving denialists a feeling of community support for their fringe beliefs. Yet this opens the door to a kind of credulousness that is anathema to real skeptical thinking.
In fact, denialism seems to have much more in common with conspiracy theories than with skepticism. How many times have you heard a conspiracy theorist claim that we have not yet met a sufficiently high standard of evidence to believe a well-documented fact (such as that vaccines do not cause autism), then immediately exhibit complete gullibility that the most unlikely correlations are true (for instance, that the CDC paid the Institute for Medicine to suppress the data on thimerosal)? This fits completely with the denialist pattern: to have impossibly high standards of proof for the things that one does not want to believe and extremely low standards of acceptance for the things that fit one’s ideology. Why does this occur? Because unlike skeptics, denialists’ beliefs are not borne of caring about evidence in the first place; they do not have the scientific attitude. The double standard toward evidence is tolerated because it serves the denialists’ purpose. What they care about most is protecting their beliefs. This is why one sees all of the cheating on scientific standards of evidence, even when empirical matters are under discussion.
…[I]t seems wrong to classify denialists as skeptics. They may use evidence selectively and pounce on the tiniest holes in someone else’s theory, but this is not because they are being rigorous; the criteria being used here are ideological, not evidential. To be selective in a biased way is not the same thing as being skeptical. In fact, considering most of the beliefs that denialists prefer to scientific ones, one must conclude that they are really quite gullible.
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